乌克兰橙色联盟失败

Orange Coalition Falls in Ukraine
乌克兰橙色联盟失败

The so-called Orange coalition of Western-leaning political factions in Ukraine’s Parliament disintegrated on Tuesday, in what could be the first stage in an effort to unseat Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko.

Ms. Tymoshenko, who led the coalition, immediately labeled the dissolution illegal, and vowed to continue to lead the “democratic team.”

She has so far rebuffed calls for her resignation from Viktor F. Yanukovich, who defeated her in a bitterly contested presidential election last month. But the collapse of the majority coalition in Parliament, which Ms. Tymoshenko led, could seriously undermine her ability to hang on, analysts said.

“I declare that the coalition no longer exists,” the Parliament’s speaker, Volodymyr M. Lytvyn, said in remarks broadcast on Russian television. Mr. Lytvyn said that the Our Ukraine faction and his own bloc had pulled out of the bloc, leaving it without the 226 seats needed to hold a majority.

The coalition’s collapse signals that a vote of no confidence in the government scheduled for Wednesday will likely pass, allowing supporters of Mr. Yanukovich to begin forming a new majority coalition on the basis of his party, the *** of Regions, said Mikhail B. Pogrebinsky, director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies.

“Tomorrow there will be a vote of no confidence, they will vote for it and Tymoshenko will become acting prime minister until a new coalition votes on a new prime minister,” he said. “In any case, she will go.”

Ms. Tymoshenko has fought off major challenges to her authority before, and it was unclear Tuesday how many of her former allies were prepared to abandon her.

The Orange coalition, formed in December 2008 after months of political infighting, was rickety from the start. Constant bickering and a failure to make good on promises of European integration and economic improvement made way for Mr. Yanukovich’s victory in last month’s election.

On Tuesday, Ms. Tymoshenko lashed out at the “betrayal” of former allies, whom she accused of negotiating with Mr. Yanukovich, and vowed to rally those she called true democrats.

“Starting today, I am setting the task of beginning to unite the genuine democratic and national-patriotic forces of Ukraine, because Ukraine is in need of this protection like never before,” Ms. Tymoshenko said in remarks on her Web site.

Though she said she would continue to fight, she suggested that she might step down if the vote of no confidence passed on Wednesday.

“Certainly, if there is a vote of no confidence, all responsibility would immediately lie with Yanukovich,” she said. “He would have to take responsibility on himself for leading the country.”

In any case, weeks of political wrangling could be in store as Mr. Yanukovich’s supporters attempt to court their erstwhile foes. Parliament will have 30 days to form a new coalition and 60 days to form a new government, a process that has caused the government to deadlock in the past. If this fails, Mr. Yanukovich could call for new parliamentary elections.

In a twist characteristic of Ukraine’s convoluted politics, it is members from the Our Ukraine bloc of the former president, Viktor A. Yushchenko, who could be most important for Mr. Yanukovich’s supporters in forming a new coalition.

Mr. Yushchenko defeated Mr. Yanukovich after the 2004 Orange revolution, and their supporters have often fought bitterly. But recently, members of Our Ukraine have signaled a willingness to work with Mr. Yanukovich’s *** of Regions.

The head of the Our Ukraine faction in Parliament, Mykola Martynenko, said on Tuesday that his party would be willing to negotiate with factions other than Ms. Tymoshenko’s in a bid to secure the prime minister’s post for one of its members.

“A force is needed that would prevent the concentration of power,” he said, according to Inte***x.

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